ASCO SPECIAL ARTICLE A m e r i c a n S o c i e t y o f C l i n i c a l O n c o l o g y T e c h n o l o g y A s s e s s m e n t o f P h a r m a c o l o g i c I n t e r v e n t i o n s f o r B r e a s t C a n c e r R i s k R e d u c t i o n I n c l u d i n g T a m o x i f e n , R a l o x i f e n e , a n d A r o m a t a s e I n h i b i t i o n
By Rowan T. Chlebowski, Nananda Col, Eric P. Winer, Deborah E. Collyar, Steven R. Cummings, Victor G. Vogel III,
Harold J. Burstein, Andrea Eisen, Isaac Lipkus, and David G. Pfister for the American Society of Clinical Oncology Breast
Cancer Technology Assessment Working Group
Objective: To update an evidence-based technology Risk/benefit models suggest that greatest clinical ben- assessment of chemoprevention strategies for breast efit with least side effects is derived from use of tamox- cancer risk reduction. ifen in younger (premenopausal) women (who are less Potential Interventions: Tamoxifen, raloxifene, aro- likely to have thromboembolic sequelae and uterine matase inhibition, and fenretinide. cancer), women without a uterus, and women at higher Outcomes: Outcomes of interest include breast can- breast cancer risk. Data do not as yet suggest that cer incidence, breast cancer–specific survival, overall tamoxifen provides an overall health benefit or in- survival, and net health benefit. creases survival. In all circumstances, tamoxifen use Evidence: A comprehensive, formal literature review should be discussed as part of an informed decision- was conducted for relevant topics. Testimony was col- making process with careful consideration of individu- lected from invited experts and interested parties. The ally calculated risks and benefits. Use of tamoxifen American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) prescribed combined with hormone replacement therapy or use of technology assessment procedure was followed. raloxifene, any aromatase inhibitor or inactivator, or Values: More weight was given to published ran- fenretinide to lower the risk of developing breast cancer is domized trials. not recommended outside of a clinical trial setting. This Benefits/Harms: A woman’s decision regarding technology assessment represents an ongoing process breast cancer risk reduction strategies is complex and and recommendations will be updated in a timely matter. will depend on the importance and weight attributed to Validation: The conclusions were endorsed by the information regarding both cancer- and noncancer- ASCO Health Services Research Committee and the related risks and benefits. ASCO Board of Directors. Conclusions: For women with a defined 5-year pro- Sponsor: American Society of Clinical Oncology. jected breast cancer risk of > 1.66%, tamoxifen (at 20 J Clin Oncol 20:3328-3343. 2002 by American mg/d for 5 years) may be offered to reduce their risk. Society of Clinical Oncology.
THE WORKING group (Appendix) reviewed the liter- Cancer Lit, PubMed, and scientific Internet sites (selected by link
ature and, in a series of meetings and conference calls,
frequency). References were searched for the period from the lasttechnology assessment (June 1999) through March 2002 using the
considered recommendations from the original 1999 tech-
following search terms: tamoxifen, raloxifene, aromatase inhibitors,
nology assessment.1 The technology assessment was limited
retinoids and breast cancer, breast cancer risk reduction, and breast
to breast cancer chemoprevention. By this definition, surgi-
cancer risk communication. Of the 3,733 references identified and
cal and lifestyle interventions were excluded from consid-
reviewed at least by title, 119 are referenced in the current report.
eration but have been reviewed elsewhere.2,3
Published information was updated by including key investigators inthe Working Group and inviting corporate entities to provide emerging
The technology assessment followed previously described proce-
dures.1 A comprehensive literature review incorporated MEDLINE,
Conclusions of this technology assessment are outlined
From the American Society of Clinical Oncology, Alexandria, VA.Submitted May 25, 2002; accepted May 25, 2002. Address reprint requests to American Society of Clinical Oncology,
For women with a 5-year projected breast cancer risk of
Health Services Research Department, 1900 Duke St, Suite 200,
Ն 1.66%, tamoxifen (at 20 mg/d for 5 years) may be offered
Alexandria, VA 22314; email: guidelines@asco.org.
to reduce risk. Consideration of tamoxifen is appropriate for
This article was published online ahead of print at www.jco.org.
the goal of lowering the short-term risk of developing breast
2002 by American Society of Clinical Oncology. 0732-183X/02/2015-3328/$20.00
cancer. Risk/benefit models suggest that greatest clinical
Journal of Clinical Oncology, Vol 20, No 15 (August 1), 2002: pp 3328-3343
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Copyright 2002 American Society of Clinical Oncology. All rights reserved.
ASCO TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT: BREAST CANCER RISK REDUCTION UPDATE 2002
Table 1. Conclusions
comes under tamoxifen influence needs to be translated into
absolute terms for each woman. In all circumstances,
For women with a 5-year projected breast cancer risk of Ն 1.66%,
tamoxifen use should be discussed as part of an informed
tamoxifen (at 20 mg/d for 5 years) may be offered to reduce risk.
decision-making process with careful consideration of risks
Consideration of tamoxifen is appropriate for the goal of lowering the
short-term risk of developing breast cancer. Risk/benefit models suggestthat greatest clinical benefit with least side effects are derived from use
of tamoxifen in younger (premenopausal) women (who are less likely tohave thromboembolic sequelae and uterine cancer), women without a
Use of raloxifene to lower breast cancer risk is not
uterus, and women at higher breast cancer risk. Data do not as yet
recommended. Raloxifene should be reserved for its ap-
suggest that tamoxifen provides overall health benefit or increases
proved indication to prevent or treat bone loss in postmeno-
Risk/benefit calculation for tamoxifen use is challenging with no simple
scale to weigh the disparate clinical outcomes that vary in their
morbidity and mortality risk. To inform potential tamoxifen users, therelative risk of all outcomes under tamoxifen influence need to be
Use of any aromatase inhibitor or aromatase inactivator
translated into absolute terms for each woman, considering outcomes
to lower breast cancer risk is not recommended.
under tamoxifen influence. In all circumstances, tamoxifen use shouldbe discussed as part of an informed decision-making process with
careful consideration of risks and benefits.
Use of fenretinide to lower breast cancer risk is not
Use of raloxifene to lower breast cancer risk is not recommended.
Raloxifene should be reserved for its approved indication to prevent ortreat bone loss in postmenopausal women.
Use of any aromatase inhibitor or aromatase inactivator to lower breast
Clinical trials evaluating potential chemoprevention
agents either alone or in combination are encouraged. Use
of tamoxifen in combination with hormone replacement
Use of frenretinide to lower breast cancer risk is not recommended.
therapy (HRT) is not recommended outside of a clinical trial
Clinical trials evaluating potential chemoprevention agents either alone or
setting, given the uncertainty regarding long-term side
effects of the combination and the association of HRT with
Placebo controls are appropriate for breast cancer risk reduction trials
increased breast cancer risk in observational studies. Use of
since no intervention has been demonstrated to favorably impact net
tamoxifen in combination or sequentially with raloxifene or
aromatase inhibitors for breast cancer risk reduction has
Use of tamoxifen in combination with hormone replacement therapy
outside of a clinical trial setting is not recommended given uncertainty
either not been studied or studies have yet to be reported.
regarding long-term side effects of the combination and the association
Placebo controls are appropriate for breast cancer risk
of hormone replacement therapy with increased breast cancer risk in
reduction trials since no intervention has been demonstrated
to have a favorable impact on net health or survival.
Use of tamoxifen for risk reduction in combination or sequentially with
This technology assessment represents an ongoing pro-
other agents (such as raloxifene or aromatase inhibitors) has either notbeen studied or studies have not yet been reported.
cess, and the Working Group will continue to monitor data
This technology assessment represents an ongoing process, and we will
and update recommendations in a timely manner. The basis
continue to monitor data and update recommendations in a timely
for these recommendations follow. Clinical evidence is
benefit with least side effects are derived from use oftamoxifen in younger (premenopausal) women (who are
Clinical Evidence Relevant to Tamoxifen’s Effect on
less likely to have thromboembolic sequelae and uterine
cancer), women without a uterus, and women at higher
Tamoxifen’s influence on breast cancer in risk reduction
breast cancer risk. Data do not as yet suggest that tamoxifen
Tamoxifen is the only agent approved by the
provides an overall health benefit or increases survival.
United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for
Risk/benefit calculation for tamoxifen use is challenging.
breast cancer risk reduction. Four randomized trials are
There is no simple scale to weigh the disparate clinical
prospectively evaluating tamoxifen (Nolvadex; AstraZen-
outcomes that vary in their morbidity and mortality risk. To
eca, Wilmington, DE) for breast cancer risk reduction.4-7 At
inform potential tamoxifen users, the relative risk of out-
the last technology assessment, three trials had reported
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Copyright 2002 American Society of Clinical Oncology. All rights reserved. Table 2. Randomized, Prospective Trials of Tamoxifen for Primary Breast Cancer Risk Reduction
NOTE. Total cancers include invasive breast cancers and ductal carcinoma-in-situ but excludes lobular cancer-in-situ. Active, blinded follow-up continues for all
but NSABP P1. The Royal Marsden trial involves 8 years of tamoxifen therapy; all others involve 5 years of therapy.
Abbreviations: NSABP, National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project; IBIS, International Breast Cancer Intervention Study; CA, cancer; Tam, tamoxifen;
OR, odds ratio; 95% CI, 95% confidence interval; LCIS, lobular carcinoma-in-situ; HRT, hormone replacement therapy; DVT, deep venous thrombosis; PE, pulmonaryembolism; DCIS, ductal carcinoma-in-situ; ADH, atypical ductal hyperplasia; NR, not reported.
outcome with 479 breast cancers observed. A meta-analysis
The IBIS-1 trial randomized 7,154 women at increased
of these studies, of which the National Surgical Breast and
breast cancer risk to tamoxifen or placebo. The primary end
Bowel Project (NSABP) P-1 trial contributed the largest
point was breast cancer development (invasive and ductal
proposition of entered patients, identified a significant 42%
carcinoma-in-situ) and the secondary end point was devel-
reduction in relative risk (RR) of developing breast cancer
opment of endometrial and other cancers. A relatively
associated with tamoxifen use (RR, 0.58; 95% confidence
young population (median age, 50.8 years) at increased
breast cancer risk that was identified using a newly devel-
The absolute risk reduction in these trials was less than 2
oped risk assessment tool was randomized to tamoxifen (20
per 100 women given tamoxifen for 5 years. The absolute
mg/d for 5 years) or placebo. Tamoxifen significantly
risk reduction anticipated in an individual woman depends
decreased the risk of breast cancer development (odds ratio,
on her calculated breast cancer risk, with women at higher
0.67; 95% CI, 0.49 to 0.91; P ϭ .01), based on distribution
risk having greater potential benefit. For instance, the
average 65-year-old woman with no family history has an
Concurrent HRT use was permitted in the IBIS-1 study,
anticipated risk reduction of 1 per 100, while a 50-year-old
was used by over 40% of participants, and had no detri-
woman with two affected siblings and two prior biopsies but
mental effect on tamoxifen-associated breast cancer risk
no germline mutation has an anticipated risk reduction of
reduction. As in P-1, tamoxifen use in IBIS-1 reduced only
receptor-positive breast cancers and had no influence on the
The initial report of the International Breast Cancer
receptor-negative cancers seen. A recent observational
Intervention Study (IBIS-1) comparing tamoxifen with
study reporting a tamoxifen-associated increase in receptor-
placebo and updates of the two other European chemopre-
negative breast cancers9 will require further evaluation.
vention tamoxifen trials7 substantially increase information
A meta-analysis7 now including the four randomized
regarding tamoxifen’s influence on breast cancer risk (Ta-
tamoxifen trials with updated results10 from all three Euro-
bles 2 and 3). Currently, 738 breast cancers have been
pean trials identified a 38% reduction in breast cancer with
reported in the four randomized tamoxifen trials, 54% more
tamoxifen (odds ratio, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.42 to 0.89). These
than available at the last technology assessment.
results support a significant influence of tamoxifen on
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Copyright 2002 American Society of Clinical Oncology. All rights reserved.
ASCO TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT: BREAST CANCER RISK REDUCTION UPDATE 2002
(Cont’d)
reducing short-term breast cancer risk, with a magnitude of
increased breast cancer risk in observational studies11,12 and
effect somewhat smaller than seen in the P-1 trial.
uncertainties regarding long-term effects of combined HRT
Tamoxifen’s influence on survival in risk reduction trials.
and tamoxifen use argue against routine use of such a
None of the four tamoxifen trials was designed to assess
combination in a risk reduction setting. However, further
tamoxifen’s influence on survival. Available data do not yet
evaluation of combined HRT and tamoxifen use remains an
suggest that tamoxifen favorably influences overall health
or survival in the risk reduction setting. Currently, the
Tamoxifen’s influence on contralateral breast cancer in
number of deaths are closely comparable in the tamoxifen
In the last published Early Breast Cancer
and control arms of the prevention trials.7 All three Euro-
Trialists Cooperative Group (EBCTCG) analysis of adju-
pean trials continue blinded follow-up and will provide
vant trials,13 a 47% reduction in relative risk of contralateral
additional information on tamoxifen and breast cancer
breast cancer was associated with 5 years of tamoxifen use
development, carry-over effects after tamoxifen discontin-
(RR, 0.53; SD, 0.09; P Ͻ .00001), providing further support
uation, and breast cancer–specific survival and overall
for a tamoxifen effect on new breast cancer development.
The EBCTCG 2000 update identified 553 contralateral
breast cancers and reported that contralateral breast cancer
ence with combined tamoxifen and HRT for breast cancer
risk reduction was seen only in women who had an initial
risk reduction. The Royal Marsden Hospital Trial included
receptor-positive tumor.14 Supporting this observation is a
523 women using both tamoxifen and HRT; subgroup
recent report that women who develop receptor-negative
analysis found no interaction on breast cancer develop-
breast cancer are likely to develop receptor-negative con-
ment.5 In the Italian study,6 a subgroup analysis found
tamoxifen significantly reduced breast cancer risk only in
Tamoxifen duration for risk reduction.
women receiving HRT, an analysis based on only nine
IBIS trials, which provide the most evidence on risk
cancers. The large IBIS-1 trial reported comparable tamox-
reduction, the duration of tamoxifen use was 5 years.4,7
ifen-associated risk reduction in women with or without
Indirect information on tamoxifen duration in this setting
concurrent HRT use. In IBIS-1, combined HRT and tamox-
comes from follow-up of the NSABP B-14 trial in adjuvant
ifen was not associated with a greater short-term increase in
disease, which found no additional benefit on contralateral
endometrial cancer or vascular events compared with ta-
breast cancer for continued tamoxifen use beyond 5 years.16
Tamoxifen’s effects on benign breast disease.
Although no interaction between HRT and tamoxifen on
cern that tamoxifen’s effect on breast cancer risk may only
breast cancer was identified, the association of HRT with
reflect early therapy of invasive disease has been addressed
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Copyright 2002 American Society of Clinical Oncology. All rights reserved. Table 3. Quantity of Data Relevant to Breast Cancer Risk Reduction by Chemoprevention Agents
No. of risk reduction randomized prospective trials
No. of breast cancers reported in prospective, randomized
No. of breast cancers reported in randomized trials from
Effect of interventions on breast cancer risk
No. of adjuvant breast cancer trials reported
No. of new contralateral breast cancers reported in
Effect of intervention on contralateral breast cancer risk
Maximum follow-up available for toxicity information,
Abbreviation: N/A, not available. NOTE. Breast cancer in these reports includes both invasive breast cancer and ductal carcinoma-in-situ but excludes lobular carcinoma-in-situ. *Results from a secondary analysis of a randomized osteoporosis trial. †Based on Early Trialist report (Early Trialist 1998) for 5 years of tamoxifen use with 252 breast cancers seen.
by an analysis of benign breast disease in the P-1 trial. In
Tamoxifen’s effects in women with prior breast disease.
this setting, tamoxifen was associated with a significant
Women with a history of ductal carcinoma-in-situ20 or
reduction in both the total number of biopsies and in the
lobular carcinoma-in-situ are at recognized increased breast
proportion of specimens from these biopsies showing atyp-
cancer risk and are reasonable candidates for tamoxifen
ical hyperplasia, typical hyperplasia, adenosis, cysts, and
use.4 Women with prior receptor-positive invasive breast
cancer who have either not received tamoxifen or received
Tamoxifen’s effects in women with BRCA1/BRCA2 mu-
tamoxifen for less than 5 years are also at increased breast
The NSABP has evaluated the effect of tamoxifen
cancer risk and can potentially benefit from tamoxifen.21,22
on breast cancer risk in P-1 participants with inherited
Tamoxifen in African-American women.
effectiveness in breast cancer risk reduction in African-
BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations.18 Of 288 women who devel-
American women has been inferred from a retrospective
oped breast cancers, 19 had either BRCA1 or BRCA2
analyses involving 58 contralateral breast cancers seen in
mutations. Tamoxifen reduced breast cancer risk in women
NSABP adjuvant trials,23 where a 52% reduction in relative
with BRCA2 mutations, in whom tumors were largely
risk of contralateral breast cancer was observed (RR, 0.48;
receptor-positive (RR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.06 to 1.56), but not
in women with BRCA1 mutations (RR, 1.67; 95% CI, 0.32to 10.70), in whom tumors were more commonly receptor-
Other Positive and Negative Effects of Tamoxifen Use
negative. However, a matched case-control study reported
New information on tamoxifen has emerged from the
significant protection against contralateral breast cancer in
NSABP P-1 study, the EBCTCG 2000 update, and meta-
carriers of BRCA1 mutations treated with tamoxifen (odds
analyses of published literature.24,25 The effects of tamox-
ratio, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.19 to 0.74), while contralateral
ifen reflect more than 20 years of clinical trial use.
cancers in BRCA2 mutation carriers were less influenced
(odds ratio, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.20 to 1.50).19
results from trials comparing 5 years of tamoxifen use to no
The extremely limited number of subjects in these
therapy in more than 8,000 women with early breast
reports and the mixed results seen preclude reliable
cancer.14 Although not published, presented results in-
assessment of tamoxifen effects in this setting. Given the
formed the National Cancer Institute’s Adjuvant Breast
overall number of identified mutation carriers, this im-
Cancer Consensus Conference.26 In the EBCTCG update,
portant issue is unlikely to be resolved by further
time-dependent effects of tamoxifen use were identified.
Five years of tamoxifen substantially reduced the risk for
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Copyright 2002 American Society of Clinical Oncology. All rights reserved.
ASCO TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT: BREAST CANCER RISK REDUCTION UPDATE 2002
breast cancer recurrence and contralateral cancer that per-
and identified risk, tamoxifen use for breast cancer risk
sisted for 5 to 10 years after termination of tamoxifen use.
reduction is relatively contraindicated and not recom-
In addition, increased endometrial cancer risk was also
mended in women with a history of deep vein thrombosis,
persistent, supporting a previously identified trend.13,25,27
pulmonary embolus, stroke, or transient ischemic attack.
Publication of the EBCTG update is needed to fully evalu-
creases endometrial cancer risk in postmenopausal women
Tamoxifen and quality of life, depression, and cognition.
with a uterus by approximately two- to four-fold.4,7 In the
Tamoxifen use is associated with more frequent hot flashes
EBCTG update, tamoxifen-associated excess mortality re-
and vaginal discharge.4 Development of cataracts also is
lated to endometrial cancer was approximately one death
more frequent (RR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.29) with
per 1,000 postmenopausal women with a uterus treated.14
tamoxifen use, with the absolute risk increasing by 3 per
New information on tamoxifen-related endometrial cancers
comes from a case-control study with 309 endometrial
Tamoxifen did not adversely influence questionnaire-
cancers. Long-term tamoxifen users who developed endo-
assessed depression risk,28 quality of life,29 or several other
metrial cancer had a relatively unfavorable prognosis re-
psychosocial or social functions.30,31 Other risk reduction
lated to histology (more common malignant mixed meso-
trials have yet to report on these parameters.
dermal tumors or sarcomas of the endometrium) and higher
Tamoxifen’s effects on cognition are not resolved. A
stage.37 Endometrial cancer risk with tamoxifen was
neuroimaging study compared levels of myoinositol (a glial
increased by prior estrogen use and obesity.38 Despite
marker) in women receiving tamoxifen, HRT, or no hor-
ongoing trials, use of progestins to mitigate tamoxifen’s
monal treatments. A significant time-dependent reduction in
effects on the endometrium, as widely used in HRT
myoinositol was seen with tamoxifen, consistent with ago-
regimens, is not recommended given progestin’s activity
nist action on brain predictive of a favorable neuroprotec-
tive effect.32,33 In a cross-sectional study of nursing home
Prospective evaluation did not support the routine use of
residents, women who reported past tamoxifen use had less
either endometrial biopsy41 or transvaginal ultrasound42 in
frequent Alzheimer’s disease and greater activities of daily
ongoing monitoring for women with history of breast cancer
living compared with women who had never used tamox-
receiving tamoxifen. Recommended follow-up for women
ifen.34 However, in an observational study using mailed
receiving tamoxifen includes a yearly gynecologic exami-
questionnaires, current users complained of somewhat more
nation and timely work-up of vaginal bleeding.
memory problems,35 although no decrease in cognitive
Tamoxifen and gastrointestinal cancers.
function was seen. Additional studies using sensitive meth-
meta-analysis of randomized trials identified increased gas-
odologies that delineate memory and recall abilities are
trointestinal and colorectal malignancies associated with
tamoxifen use,24 a nested case-control study found no
Tamoxifen and cardiovascular events.
increase in colorectal cancer among tamoxifen users,43 so
P-1 trial, cardiovascular events, including myocardial in-
farctions, were similar in women receiving tamoxifen or
placebo regardless of pre-existing coronary heart disease.36
ated with a modest, nonsignificant reduction in fractures
compared with placebo in the P-1 trial4 and with signifi-
clude deep venous thrombosis, pulmonary embolism,
cantly fewer fractures compared with anastrozole in an
stroke, and transient ischemic attack. A recent meta-analysis
adjuvant trial.44 Whether the latter represents a positive
of published tamoxifen trials found the incidence of both
tamoxifen effect, a negative aromatase inhibitor effect, or
venous thromboembolic events and strokes to be signifi-
some combination remains to be determined.
cantly greater in women receiving tamoxifen.24 TheEBCTG update confirmed prior estimates of tamoxifen-
associated excess mortality related to vascular events,
Clinical Evidence Relevant to Raloxifene’s Effect on
largely pulmonary emboli of approximately one death per
1,000 postmenopausal women treated for 5 years.14 Sincenearly half of thromboembolic events seen in the IBIS trial
Two ongoing, randomized, prospective trials are evalu-
occurred within 3 months of surgery or fracture,7 tamoxifen
ating raloxifene (Evista; Lilly, Indianapolis, IN) and breast
use should be carefully re-evaluated in women using tamox-
cancer risk,45,46 but neither has reported clinical outcome.
ifen in a risk reduction setting after such events. Given
Data on raloxifene’s influence on breast cancer come
common protocol exclusions for vascular events (Table 2)
almost exclusively from the Multiple Outcomes of Ralox-
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Copyright 2002 American Society of Clinical Oncology. All rights reserved. Table 4. Status of Selected Ongoing Randomized Trials for Primary Breast Cancer Risk Reduction With Clinical Outcome End Points
NOTE. Studies with these agents for women with ductal carcinoma-in-situ are not included.
ifene Evaluation (MORE) study, in which 7,705 postmeno-
baseline estradiol levels greater than 10 pmol/L had a
pausal women with osteoporosis were randomized to ralox-
6.8-fold higher rate of breast cancer than women with
ifene at 60 or 120 mg/d or placebo for 4 years and
undetectable levels (P ϭ .005 for trend).47 In addition, the
monitored for breast cancer development from the safety
raloxifene-associated reduction in breast cancer risk was
database. At the last technology assessment, a total of 54
largely in women with the highest baseline estradiol levels,
breast cancers (39 invasive) were reported. The MORE
which suggests that individualized stratification for breast
study has been updated47-49 with the most recent report,
cancer risk reduction interventions may be possible. This
including 77 verified breast cancers of which 59 were
hypothesis will require prospective confirmation.
invasive.49 Raloxifene use (combining both dosage arms)
Study of Tamoxifen and Raloxifene and Raloxifene for
continues to be associated with a significant reduction in
Use in the Heart: Definitive raloxifene outcome trials.
relative risk of developing invasive breast cancers (RR,
Definitive assessment of raloxifene’s influence on breast
0.28; 95% CI, 0.09 to 0.30), especially estrogen receptor–
cancer awaits the results from two ongoing randomized
positive breast cancers. The absolute reduction in risk of
trials (Table 4). The Study of Tamoxifen and Raloxifene
developing breast cancer was 1.4 per 100 women given
(STAR) trial has randomized more than 13,000 women of a
22,000 recruitment target and is scheduled to report out-
The MORE study continues to follow women under an
come in 2008 or 2009.45 The Raloxifene for Use in the
amended design. Reconsented participants have been con-
Heart (RUTH) study has completed recruitment with 10,011
tinued on the original treatment assignment, with those on
postmenopausal women and has added breast cancer to
the 120-mg/d arm receiving a reduced dose of 60 mg/d (the
cardiac disease as a second primary study end point.46
FDA-approved osteoporosis dose). Clinical outcome will be
The RUTH trial, with baseline breast cancer risk assess-
evaluated at 6 and 8 years after entry.
ment, periodic serial mammography, and randomization
Cautions regarding interpretation of the raloxifene data
to either raloxifene 60 mg/d or placebo, will report breast
expressed in the previous technology assessment are still
cancer outcomes in 2005 after completion of the fourth-
applicable. A meta-analysis of several randomized trials
with 10,575 women (including the MORE trial) previously
Pending results of the outcome trials (Table 4), there is
reported a smaller (55%) relative reduction in breast cancer
currently insufficient evidence to support routine use of
risk in the raloxifene arms.50 The current status of an
raloxifene for breast cancer risk reduction.
updated report of breast cancer development in these ralox-
Raloxifene use in women with resected breast cancer.
ifene randomized trials is not available.
Raloxifene reduces mammographic breast density51 and
In an intriguing subgroup analysis conducted in 7,290 of
breast cancer proliferative indices.52 However, as raloxifene
the MORE participants, the placebo group women with
has limited activity against advanced breast cancer when
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Copyright 2002 American Society of Clinical Oncology. All rights reserved.
ASCO TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT: BREAST CANCER RISK REDUCTION UPDATE 2002
used after tamoxifen53 and does not decrease and may
technology assessment, but they have been reviewed
increase hot flash frequency,54 there is no basis for substi-
elsewhere.66,67 Anastrazole, letrozole, and exemestane
tuting raloxifene for tamoxifen in the treatment of adjuvant
are all in randomized trials for adjuvant breast cancer
breast cancer patients experiencing menopausal symptoms.
therapy. Information from these studies will inform
Currently, there are no published data regarding sequen-
tial tamoxifen and raloxifene use or use of raloxifene with
There is interest in evaluating aromatase inhibitors for
HRT. Preclinical studies demonstrating raloxifene stimula-
breast cancer risk reduction because estrogen levels are
tion of tamoxifen-resistant breast cancers in athymic mice55
strongly related to higher breast cancer risk in postmeno-
and raloxifene cross-resistance with tamoxifen53 suggest
pausal women68 and estrogen levels are greatly reduced by
caution in raloxifene use in women with resected breast
cancer who have completed tamoxifen adjuvant therapy. The Anastrazole, Tamoxifen Alone and Combined trial.
Relevant to breast cancer risk reduction are results from an
Other Positive and Negative Effects of Raloxifene Use
adjuvant trial involving the aromatase inhibitor anastrozole
Raloxifene’s toxicity profile remains largely as previ-
(Arimidex; AstraZeneca). The Anastrazole, Tamoxifen
ously described.1 Published information on raloxifene is
alone and Combined (ATAC) trial44 is an international,
based on 4 years of use and is limited to postmenopausal
multicenter, randomized, double-blind trial that randomized
women. Emerging reports regarding raloxifene effects are
9,366 patients with early-stage breast cancer to three treat-
ment arms: tamoxifen 20 mg/d, anastrazole 1 mg/d, or the
combination for 5 years. Primary study end points included
raloxifene 60 mg/d for osteoporosis prevention and therapy
disease-free survival and safety/tolerability; new (contralat-
in postmenopausal women.56 The disproportionately greater
eral) breast cancer primary tumors were a secondary end
decrease in vertebral fractures relative to bone density
point. Anastrazole, but not the anastrazole plus tamoxifen
increase seen with raloxifene57 supports use of clinical
combination, was superior to tamoxifen in disease-free
outcomes rather than intermediate markers for definitive
survival after a median follow-up of 33.4 months (discussed
In the ATAC trial, anastrazole use was also associated
cardiovascular events when examined as a secondary end
with a significant 58% reduction in new contralateral breast
point in the previously mentioned MORE trial.58 Raloxifene
primary tumors (RR, 0.42 and 95% CI, 0.22 to 0.79 for
is associated with a three-fold increase in potentially life-
anastrazole compared with tamoxifen groups; P Ͻ .0068).
threatening vascular events (RR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.5 to 6.2 for
The absolute reduction in risk of developing a new con-
venous thrombolic events),59 comparable to the risk of these
tralateral breast cancer associated with anastrozole com-
events with either tamoxifen or HRT use.60
pared with tamoxifen was less than 1%. Currently, 62 new
The suggestion from preclinical and early clinical trials61
invasive contralateral breast cancers have occurred in the
that raloxifene will have little influence on the endometrium
ATAC trial. In comparison, the tamoxifen-associated rela-
awaits determination of endometrial cancer rates in ongoing
tive risk reduction of 49% in contralateral cancers reported
longer-term randomized clinical trials. Raloxifene reduced
in the NSABP B-14 adjuvant trial, which provided strong
uterine leiomyomas in one randomized trial62 and may
impetus for the P-1 trial, was based on the distribution of 83
reduce risk of pelvic floor surgery as well.63
contralateral cancers.70 In the ATAC trial, women on the
Given the preclinical studies consistent with neuroprotec-
anastrozole arm had significantly fewer vascular and endo-
tion,64 raloxifene’s influence on cognition has receivedpreliminary evaluation, with a trend toward less decline in
metrial events71 but more musculoskeletal events and frac-
tures compared with those on the tamoxifen arm.44,71
Because there are no data on the long-term effects of
aromatase inhibitor therapy, these agents should not beused in primary prevention for breast cancer outside of a
Clinical Evidence Relevant to the Effect of AromataseInhibition on Breast Cancer Risk ReductionProposed breast cancer risk reduction trials of aro-
No full-scale randomized trials evaluating aromatase
inhibitor use for primary breast cancer risk reduction
(anastrozole, letrozole) and inactivators (exemestane) in
have been conducted. A comprehensive comparative
advanced breast cancer66 and the emerging effects of
review of this class of agents is beyond the scope of this
anastrozole on contralateral breast cancer risk44 support
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Copyright 2002 American Society of Clinical Oncology. All rights reserved.
further evaluation of anastrazole and other agents in this
studies identified a risk of dementia in estrogen users of 0.71
class for breast cancer risk reduction (Table 4).
(95% CI, 0.53 to 0.96) compared with nonusers.65 However,a randomized trial of estrogen therapy for mild to
moderate Alzheimer’s disease showed no effect of 1 year
Fenretinide’s influence on contralateral breast cancer risk
of therapy on disease progression or on global, cognitive,
has been evaluated in one randomized, prospective trial in
or functional outcomes.80 The Women’s Health Initiative
nearly 3,000 women with early-stage breast cancer. Al-
Memory Study will address the question of HRT’s effect
though fenretinide had no effect on contralateral breast
on cognitive function in a large population of healthy
cancer development in the overall study population, a
posthoc analysis suggested reduced contralateral breast
Observational findings on HRT and epithelial ovarian
cancer risk in premenopausal women.72 The agent was
cancer are mixed, but a recent large case-control study
well tolerated, with diminished dark-vision adaption and
associated users of HRT regimens with estrogen alone or
dermatologic disorders being the most common adverse
sequentially added progestins with increased ovarian
events.73 A fenretinide and tamoxifen combination is
A full discussion of the risks and benefits of HRT is
beyond the scope of the current technology assessment.
Observational studies suggest an association with long-term
HRT use and an approximate 35% reduction in primary
A practical issue when considering tamoxifen for breast
cardiovascular events.76 However, randomized prospective
cancer risk reduction is how to balance tamoxifen use
clinical trials have recently evaluated HRT’s influence on
against the potential benefits of HRT on chronic disease risk
clinical end points, including cardiac and vascular events. In
and overall mortality. Issues related to combined tamoxifen
these trials, HRT use did not result in secondary prevention
and HRT use have been discussed previously (see “Tamox-
of coronary vascular disease (CVD) or cerebral vascular
ifen use with HRT” section, above).
events.83,84 In the large population (Ͼ 27,000) of generally
No full-scale randomized clinical trials of HRT have
healthy postmenopausal women randomized to HRT or
prospectively evaluated HRT’s influence on primary pre-
placebo in the ongoing Women’s Health Initiative, interim
vention of coronary heart disease or either coronary heart
analysis found an increase in the number of myocardial
disease–associated mortality or all-cause mortality.
infarctions, strokes, and thromboembolic events in the
More recent observational studies suggest an association
initial years for women receiving HRT as compared with
with HRT use and an increase in breast cancer risk of
placebo.85 Continued follow-up of such trials will provide
approximately 30%,12 especially for longer use (Ͼ 5 years)
definitive assessment of HRT’s influence on CVD and
and for regimens with progestins.11,39 Translated into abso-
overall mortality. Results from the Women’s Health Initia-
lute risk, approximately six excess breast cancers would be
anticipated in 1,000 women using HRT for 10 years.75 Use
Review of this emerging body of information has led
of HRT is associated with an approximate three-fold in-
several agencies, including the American Heart Association,
crease in life-threatening vascular events and, when used
to alter their recommendations regarding HRT. The Asso-
without progestins, increased endometrial cancer risk.76
ciation’s recommendations for HRT and CVD now state
The approved indications for estrogens used as HRT
that “firm recommendations for primary prevention await
include symptoms associated with moderate to severe
randomized clinical trial results and there is insufficient data
menopause and prevention and management of osteoporo-
to suggest that HRT should be initiated for the sole purpose
sis. Although HRT is often proposed for improving overall
health and reducing mortality, recent estimates of HRT’s
This technology assessment takes no position regard-
influence on mortality are largely based on purported effects
ing HRT use in postmenopausal women. However, rec-
on cardiac events stemming from observational study re-
ommendation of HRT use for cardiovascular disease risk
sults and lipid profile influence.77,78 The established effects
reduction and overall health or survival benefit should be
of HRT in preventing osteoporosis have a relatively small
approached using the same risk/benefit algorithm out-
impact on mortality because life-threatening fractures tend
A favorable effect of HRT on cognition has been pre-
dicted from preclinical and observational studies,79 but the
Assessment of breast cancer risk is the first step in
data are somewhat mixed. A meta-analysis of observational
considering tamoxifen use.3,78,88 The most useful model
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Copyright 2002 American Society of Clinical Oncology. All rights reserved.
ASCO TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT: BREAST CANCER RISK REDUCTION UPDATE 2002
available for breast cancer risk assessment89 was developed
COMPARISON OF QUANTITATIVE APPROACHES FOR
by Gail et al90 (the Gail model) and adjusted to take into
consideration the lower breast cancer risk of Hispanic
Survey research has identified some reluctance of women
women. Rockhill et al91 used data from white women in the
to favorably consider tamoxifen for breast cancer risk
Nurses Health Study to address this Gail model’s validity.
reduction.95,96 The current status of methods to communi-
In their analyses, the model did well in predicting breast
cate risk and benefits of tamoxifen in a risk reduction setting
cancer risk in subgroups of women (“calibration”) but had
are outlined below in a discussion of approaches to estimate
only modest ability to discriminate whether an individual
positive and negative effects of tamoxifen. The global
woman would or would not develop breast cancer (“dis-
effects of tamoxifen use for breast cancer risk reduction
criminatory accuracy”). Since tamoxifen’s influence on
have been estimated using approaches that differ in clinical
breast cancer risk is limited to receptor-positive disease,
outcomes considered, assumed duration of tamoxifen effect,
development of improved approaches to more accurately
the perspective of analysis (individual v society v third-party
assess an individual woman’s risk of developing receptor-
payer), assigned values of risks and benefits, and method-
positive tumors is a priority research issue.
ologies used for integrating outcomes (Table 5).
The Gail model does not incorporate information needed
to assess germline mutation carrier status or several other
Gail Model to Estimate Positive and Negative Effects of
high-breast-cancer-risk situations, such as prior thoracic
radiation.92 Thus, additional information must be collected
The only model currently available in a format allowing
to determine whether use of the Gail model is appropriate.
calculation of an individual risk/benefit assessment for
Issues related to genetic susceptibility testing and, in
tamoxifen use was developed by Gail et al.97 Using infor-
particular, evaluation for BRCA1 and BRCA2 are reviewed
mation from a variety of sources, this model generates
elsewhere.78,88 Factors related to having 10% or greater risk
tabular estimates of net benefit and risk of tamoxifen use in
of germline mutation include the following: known BRCA1
groups of women according to 5-year breast cancer risk,
and BRCA2 family mutation, breast and ovarian cancer in
age, presence or absence of uterus, and race. The number of
the same family member, two or more family members
health outcomes either induced or prevented by 5 years of
under age 50 with breast cancer, male breast cancer, one or
tamoxifen use was estimated. A net benefit/risk index was
more family members under age 50 with breast cancer plus
derived by assigning weights to each clinical event and
Ashkenazi ancestry, ovarian cancer plus Ashkenazi ances-
try, and breast cancer before age 40. Women whose history
Because models make assumptions about potential ben-
suggests breast cancer germline mutation are not appropri-
efit (greatest in women with high risk of breast cancer) and
ate candidates for use of the Gail model, as their risk would
greatest risk (generally older women who are at more
be underestimated. Such women are candidates for genetic
jeopardy for thromboembolism and uterine cancer), these
models predict that young women should experience a
For women without prior breast cancer or who are not at
better benefit/risk ratio. Such studies do not factor in other
increased risk for BRCA1/BRCA2, use of the Gail model is
sequelae, such as menopausal symptoms or sexual dysfunc-
appropriate as long as there are no family members with
tion, that may be more problematic in younger women.
breast cancer diagnosed before age 50. In those circum-
Application of the Gail model suggests that tamoxifen
stances, the Claus model tables, which incorporate detailed
is most beneficial in younger women at higher breast
cancer risk and those without a uterus. African-American
Information on breast cancer risk for both medical and
women are anticipated to have less tamoxifen benefit
nonmedical personnel is available from the Internet at the
based largely on increased risk of a vascular event and
National Cancer Institute’s PDQ breast cancer prevention
site, http://www.cancer.gov/cancer_information/.
Although clinically useful, the Gail model predicted
With regard to breast cancer risk assessment in the future,
outcomes only in the 5-year treatment period, the assump-
additional diagnostic and laboratory tests are being evalu-
tions in developing the risk/benefit index have not been
ated for breast cancer risk assessment. They include bone
validated, and some results are sensitive to minor changes in
density, mammographic breast density, circulatory estradiol
weights assigned to utilities. The weights assigned to the
levels, and breast cells collected by a variety of tech-
clinical outcomes were neither empirically derived nor
niques.94 The role of these procedures in clinical practice is
preference-based and do not reflect differences in mortality,
beyond the scope of the present technology assessment.
morbidity, or timing of occurrence. In addition, the likeli-
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Copyright 2002 American Society of Clinical Oncology. All rights reserved. Table 5. Summary of Analytic Approaches to Weighing the Risks and Benefits of Tamoxifen
status; impact oftamoxifen onBRCA1/2 isinferred based onER status
Abbreviations: CHD, coronary heart disease; VTE, venous thrombotic events, including both pulmonary embolism (PE) and deep venous thrombosis (DVT); ER,
estrogen receptor; TIA, transient ischemic attacks.
*Other clinical outcomes were included but assigned a weight of zero, which effectively excluded them from the benefit-risk index.
hood of incurring most adverse effects except for endome-
use to be cost-effective overall, considering all medical event–
trial cancer was based only on age not individual disease
related costs compared with no tamoxifen use. Duffy and
risk. Despite these concerns, the Gail model provides the
Nixon101 used meta-analytic techniques to estimate the impact
best available beginning framework for risk calculation.
of tamoxifen among BRCA1/BRCA2 carriers, finding tamox-
New strategies and decision aids that incorporate mortal-
ifen to be more effective among BRCA2 carriers (27% risk
ity estimates and carry-over effects of tamoxifen are under
reduction) than among BRCA1 carriers (no significant reduc-
development99 and are described below.
tion). The impact of tamoxifen on BRCA1/BRCA2 carrierswas inferred by assuming that the effect of tamoxifen is
Other Models to Estimate Positive and Negative Effects of
dependent on estrogen receptor status, determining the
proportion of estrogen receptor–positive tumors among
Smith and Hillner,100 in a cost-effectiveness analysis based
BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers, and computing a
on tamoxifen effects seen in P-1 over 5 years, found tamoxifen
weighted average for BRCA1/BRCA2 carriers.
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Copyright 2002 American Society of Clinical Oncology. All rights reserved.
ASCO TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT: BREAST CANCER RISK REDUCTION UPDATE 2002
Markov Modeling of Clinical Outcomes
emerged since the last review concerning communication of
modeling, each clinical outcome is valued according to its
risk to women who are at moderate breast cancer risk.
survival or quality-adjusted survival impact, with time-
Women typically overestimate their risk of breast can-
dependent rates and utilities assigned to each outcome.102
cer,106 emphasizing the importance of effective communi-
Survival projections involve extrapolation based on as-
cation of breast cancer risk in this setting. Relative risk
sumptions concerning long-term effects of treatment (where
describes the ratio of the risk of disease in one group
information is often limited). Differences between the
compared with that in another, does not take into consider-
various published Markov models exploring tamoxifen
ation a person’s baseline risk, and does not describe the
magnitude of the absolute risk. Absolute risk varies accord-
The models of Hershman et al103 and Grann et al104
ing to baseline level of risk and could be very small when
predict that tamoxifen use increases life expectancy of
the disease is uncommon. Overall, women should be given
higher-risk women by 69 days for 35-year-olds and 27 days
information that presents the risks and benefits of any
for 60-year-olds. The practical application of the predictions
intervention using both absolute and relative terms.107
of quality-adjusted survival in this model is limited by the
How risk information is presented,108-110 worded,107 and
assignment of utilities (hip fracture was assigned a lower
framed111,112 may affect its interpretation.113 Framing the
utility than metastatic breast cancer). Women with and
benefits (ie, gains) of treatment in relative rather than
without a uterus were treated equally, precluding determi-
absolute terms can affect a patient’s perception of a thera-
nations involving endometrial cancer risk.
py’s effectiveness,114 making the benefits of a treatment
Will et al,105 using data from Canadian cancer regis-
appear more favorable115 or, conversely, emphasizing its
tries and vital statistics to simulate effects of tamoxifen
under a range of assumptions, incorporated all P-1
Most framing studies have focused on a treatment’s effect
outcomes and calculated that tamoxifen would extend life
on a single outcome over a single time horizon.112 Women
expectancy among women whose 5-year predicted risk
deciding on tamoxifen therapy need to consider its effects
(both beneficial and harmful) on several outcomes over an
Col et al99 used a Markov model to address the impact of
extended time horizon. A study examining patient prefer-
tamoxifen among postmenopausal women at varying levels
ences for communicating complex risk information117
of risk for breast and endometrial cancer and hip fracture.
found that patients preferred risk estimates framed in
This model incorporates individual risk factors for both the
absolute rather than relative terms, graphical and textual
benefits and principal harms of tamoxifen and is the only
explanations provided together, and risk estimates given
published model to include residual impact of tamoxifen
over more than one time horizon. In addition, use of
based on the most recent EBCTCG update.14 This model
contextual and graphical displays may improve understand-
predicts that tamoxifen use in 50-year-old women without a
ing of numerical risk/benefit information.110 Efforts are
uterus results in an increased life expectancy of 1 to 4
underway to develop such platforms for general clinical use.
months, whereas women with a uterus have gains only if
In sum, the communication of tamoxifen’s risks and
they are at higher breast cancer risk. Tamoxifen carry-over
benefits should include both absolute and relative informa-tion over a relevant time period. Attention should be paid to
effects on breast and endometrial cancer risk have a strong
how the information is framed and presented.
impact on the benefit/risk survival profile.
These Markov models are complex and are constrained
by the quality of the informing data. Despite the limitations,
each model adds insight into assessing the risks and benefitsof tamoxifen. None of the Markov models described has
The recommendations of this technology assessment
been assessed for validity or is available in a format
update regarding tamoxifen and raloxifene are in substan-
allowing for individual patient data entry. Attempts are
tive agreement with two recently published guidelines
underway to develop such programs for routine clinical use.
from other agencies generated under slightly differenttime frames.118,119
CHALLENGES IN COMMUNICATING TAMOXIFEN’S
The Working Group expresses its gratitude to Robert F. Ozols, MD,
To make informed decisions regarding breast cancer risk
Trevor J. Powles, MD, and the American Society of Clinical Oncolo-
reduction, women need to understand the risks and benefits
gy’s Health Services Research Committee for their thoughtful review
of any proposed intervention. Limited publications have
of earlier drafts of the technology assessment.
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Copyright 2002 American Society of Clinical Oncology. All rights reserved.
The appendix listing the members of the ASCO Risk Reduction Update Working Group is available online at
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Anthrax is an infection caused by bacteria which form protective spores to survive in extreme conditions, enabling it to survive forlong periods of time. When we come into contact with these spores an infection may result, but not always. Anthrax can be quitedifficult to contract. There are three distinct types of anthrax infection:This is the most common infection caused by skin contact,
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